Nebius capital spending plans outlined in the AI cloud operator’s third-quarter results overwhelmed a strong revenue beat, sending shares sharply lower after the company forecast 40 billion dollars to 45 billion dollars of investment for 2027. The spending plan came with a lower 2026 revenue outlook, exposing the execution and financing risks behind Nebius’s rapid expansion.
Nebius capital spending: Revenue growth meets a harsher outlook
Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of 980.8 million dollars, up from 146.1 million dollars a year earlier. CNBC reported revenue growth of 571 percent, while TechCrunch said roughly a third of the total came from a one-time payment tied to a new partnership model. The result exceeded the 907.5 million dollar consensus cited by SiliconANGLE and BeInsure.
Profitability also improved sharply. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization reached 465.8 million dollars, compared with a 5.2 million dollar loss a year earlier. The net loss narrowed to 37.5 million dollars from 119.6 million dollars, equal to a loss of 0.13 dollars per share compared with 0.50 dollars per share in the third quarter of 2025, CNBC reported. BeInsure said adjusted earnings of 0.30 dollars per share exceeded consensus.
Those results were overshadowed by guidance rather than the reported quarter. Nebius cut its 2026 revenue forecast by 200 million dollars to 3 billion dollars because of delays affecting third-party sites. The company guided revenue to the low end of its previous range of 3 billion dollars to 3.4 billion dollars. LSEG analysts surveyed by CNBC expected 3.37 billion dollars, while FactSet estimates put full-year revenue at 3.35 billion dollars, placing consensus near the upper end of that range.
Investment rises above market expectations
Nebius increased its 2026 capital-expenditure forecast to about 27 billion dollars from an earlier range of 20 billion dollars to 25 billion dollars. CNBC reported that the new projection exceeded the FactSet estimate of 23.85 billion dollars. SiliconANGLE said it was 4.15 billion dollars higher than Wall Street had expected.
The scale of the 2027 plan widened the gap further. Management expects capital expenditures between 40 billion dollars and 45 billion dollars, substantially above the 28.77 billion dollar market consensus cited by CNBC and BeInsure. At the upper end, the planned investment would exceed analyst expectations by more than 16 billion dollars. TechCrunch reported that Nebius had laid out 40 billion dollars in planned spending on its third-quarter earnings call, far more than Wall Street had expected.
Nebius expects revenue of 12 billion dollars to 13 billion dollars in 2027 and says it expects to break even on a pre-tax basis by the fourth quarter. CNBC reported an LSEG consensus of 11.98 billion dollars. The forecast therefore offered strong top-line growth, but it depended on Nebius delivering a vast amount of new infrastructure on schedule and financing it before that capacity starts generating revenue.
Customer-backed financing carries execution risk
Nebius plans to fund the buildout through customer pre-payments and loans backed by customer contracts, effectively using the future value of its data centers to finance construction. Total prepayments plus asset-backed financing of investment-grade contracts are expected to cover up to 85 percent of the 40 billion dollar to 45 billion dollar 2027 capital-expenditure spend, TechCrunch reported.
CFO Maria Del Dado Alonso Sanchez named Microsoft and Meta as contracts that can be financed this way, according to TechCrunch. Chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky said Nebius could tap prepayments to shore up additional cash requirements. SiliconANGLE reported that the value of third-quarter prepayments exceeded capital expenditures, although the ratio is expected to decline as spending ramps up.
That model makes contract timing central to the investment case. If capacity arrives late, Nebius can keep accumulating costs while revenue slips. TechCrunch said the company’s own sites are coming online on time or ahead of schedule and should supply most of its new capacity from 2027, but the company is not insulated from delays across the industry. CEO Arkady Volozh said during the earnings call: “Building at this scale is hard, and delays are part of our industry right now. We are not immune.”
Microsoft project exposes delivery risk
Microsoft is one of Nebius’ largest customers and is paying for AI computing capacity at a Vineland, New Jersey data center that is months behind schedule. The contract is worth up to 19.4 billion dollars. Only just over half of the Microsoft capacity is now planned for delivery by the end of the year, with the remainder scheduled for the second quarter of 2027.
The delay arose because DataOne, the site’s third-party operator, decided to wind down temporary generation faster than expected while the site switches to Bloom Energy fuel cells, according to Andrey Korolenko, Nebius’ chief product and infrastructure officer. TechCrunch also reported that Floodlight identified at least 45 natural gas generators operating at the DataOne site in August despite the facility not having permits for gas generators. New Jersey regulators later fined the facility 1.1 million dollars, finding that generator use violated federal law.
DataOne is also facing a noise-complaint lawsuit from nearby residents over an alleged constant humming noise. According to Nebius’ summary of the Microsoft contract, Microsoft can terminate affected service after a grace period if delivery dates are missed and no alternative capacity is offered. The contract also carries financial penalties for late delivery, TechCrunch reported. Nebius said Microsoft had participated in the planning process, but the company did not say whether Microsoft had accepted the revised dates.
The backdrop has tightened. TechCrunch reported that Bloomberg had documented Microsoft cooling on neocloud deals that miss delivery schedules and tightening oversight of projects run by third parties, including Nebius, IREN and Nscale. Microsoft also said in its quarterly earnings report that capital-expenditure spending was lower than expected because of third-party delays. Microsoft has not publicly canceled the affected Nebius service.
Balance sheet expands, but cash flow is uneven
Nebius ended the quarter with 7.4 billion dollars in cash, TechCrunch reported. During the third quarter, spending on property, equipment and intangible assets reached 7.3 billion dollars, compared with 955.5 million dollars a year earlier. Total assets increased to 38.74 billion dollars at September 30, compared with 12.43 billion dollars at the end of 2025, BeInsure reported.
Operating cash flow also presents a mixed picture. BeInsure reported that net cash used in operating activities from continuing operations totalled 273 million dollars during the quarter. For the first nine months, operating cash flow from continuing operations was positive at 4.23 billion dollars. The figures indicate substantial expansion, while also showing that quarterly cash generation remained uneven.
Investors question the price of growth
Shares of Nebius Holdings ended the day down 17 percent, TechCrunch reported, while CNBC put the decline at 16 percent and one report said it was as much as 23 percent. The move erased roughly the 15 percent gains recorded in the previous session. SiliconANGLE said the selloff may have been sparked by the full-year revenue forecast and higher spending guidance, and also identified Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s sudden departure as another possible factor.
The setback followed a strong run. Nebius shares had gained approximately 85 percent since the beginning of 2026 before the quarterly results, BeInsure reported. The stock rose 15.4 percent on November 11 and closed at 154.69 dollars as stronger results from AI infrastructure competitor CoreWeave supported sentiment across the neocloud sector. Before the earnings announcement, 15 of 22 analysts rated the stock Buy or higher, six recommended Hold and one rated it Sell, with an average price target of 278.05 dollars.
For investors, the central question is whether Nebius can turn customer-backed financing and a huge buildout into timely revenue without giving up too much through contract penalties or additional funding costs. The quarter demonstrated exceptional sales growth and a much smaller net loss, but the 2026 guidance and Microsoft delays showed why the market may now focus more closely on execution. The stock reaction suggested that strong reported revenue alone was no longer enough. With Nebius capital spending set to reach 40 billion dollars to 45 billion dollars in 2027, every delayed site now carries greater importance for both delivery and financing.