Bitcoin Risks Deeper Decline as Bear Market Pattern Repeats A key support level for Bitcoin has given way, and a crucial on-chain metric has flipped from support to resistance. This has led analysts to warn that Bitcoin’s current price action is mirroring patterns from previous bear markets, suggesting the potential for further downside. The recent breakdown occurred as Bitcoin failed to hold a significant support zone. This failure was compounded by the price falling below the realized price, a major on-chain metric. The realized price represents the average price at which all coins in circulation were last moved. Historically, it has acted as a strong support floor during bull markets and a resistance ceiling during bear markets. The flip of the realized price from support to resistance is a classic bear market signal. It indicates that the average holder is now underwater on their investment, which can increase selling pressure as the market struggles to reclaim that level. This shift often marks a change in market structure from accumulation to distribution. Analysts observing the charts note that the current price trajectory is uncomfortably similar to the patterns seen after previous bull market peaks. The sequence of failing support, followed by the realized price resistance flip, and then a period of consolidation before another leg down is a recurring theme in Bitcoin’s history. This repetition of historical behavior suggests the market may not have found its ultimate bottom yet. In past cycles, after such a breakdown, Bitcoin has typically experienced a further significant decline before a true bear market low is established. The concern is that the recent breakdown could be the precursor to another substantial drop. The broader macroeconomic environment adds to the headwinds. Persistent inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes from central banks have created a risk-off sentiment across all financial markets. This has reduced the appetite for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Investors are moving capital into safer, yield-bearing assets, leaving riskier markets like crypto under sustained pressure. Furthermore, the leverage that was built up in the system during the bull run is still being unwound. Liquidations and forced selling continue to create downward volatility, making any sustained recovery difficult in the near term. For traders and investors, this environment calls for heightened caution. The failure of key support and the resistance flip of the realized price are clear technical warnings. The market is signaling that the path of least resistance remains to the downside for now. While Bitcoin has a long history of resilience and eventual recovery, navigating the current phase requires patience. The repeating bear market pattern indicates that a final capitulation event, where fear peaks and weak hands finally exit, may still be ahead before a new sustainable bull cycle can begin. Until there is a decisive reclaim of the realized price as support, the risk of deeper losses remains elevated.
